Matchup Overview: A High-Octane Clash in Indianapolis
The New Orleans Pelicans head to Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Friday, January 16, 2026, to face the Indiana Pacers in a game that oddsmakers expect to be one of the most high-scoring contests of the week. While both teams have struggled to climb the standings in their respective conferences this season—each currently sitting near the bottom of the Western and Eastern divisions—this particular matchup presents a unique opportunity for bettors.
When two teams with high defensive variance and a commitment to transition play meet, the "Over" often becomes the most compelling narrative. Despite the lack of a winning record for either squad, the raw talent on the floor, led by Zion Williamson and Pascal Siakam, ensures that the scoreboard will be working overtime. In this Pelicans vs Pacers prediction, we explore why the current total of 238.5 is well within reach for these two fast-breaking offenses.
A wide-angle cinematic shot of Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis during an NBA night game, with the bright lights of the arena and the Pacers logo visible on the scoreboard showing a high-scoring tally.
Offensive Efficiency vs. Defensive Gaps
The core of any high-scoring prediction lies in the relationship between offensive production and defensive permeability. According to current Basketball-Reference data, the Pelicans and Pacers both rank in the bottom third of the league in defensive rating. The Pelicans, specifically, have struggled to contain perimeter shooters, allowing opponents to shoot over 37% from deep in road contests.
The Indiana Pacers haven't fared much better. With a defensive rating hovering around 116.9, they often find themselves in "track meet" scenarios where they try to outshoot their defensive lapses. While their offensive rating has taken a hit due to significant injuries, the volume of shots remains high. Indiana currently ranks in the top 10 for field goal attempts per game, a direct result of their "seven seconds or less" philosophy in transition.
- Pelicans Offensive Rating: 113.0 (25th in NBA)
- Pelicans Defensive Rating: 120.4 (27th in NBA)
- Pacers Offensive Rating: 109.4 (29th in NBA)
- Pacers Defensive Rating: 116.9 (18th in NBA)
The statistical anomaly here is that while the efficiency is low, the possession count is astronomical. This discrepancy often leads to "ugly" high-scoring games where volume trumps accuracy.
A detailed infographic table showing the 2025-2026 offensive and defensive ratings for the New Orleans Pelicans and Indiana Pacers, highlighting the high point totals allowed by both teams.
The Pace Factor: Why Both Teams Are Primed to Score
In modern NBA betting, "pace" is the metric that dictates the Over/Under. Indiana has consistently played at one of the fastest tempos in the league this season. According to StatMuse, the Pacers rank 7th in overall pace, averaging nearly 102 possessions per 48 minutes. This speed is designed to compensate for their lack of half-court execution, forcing opponents into a chaotic, fast-break environment.
New Orleans, under their current system, thrives when the game opens up. Zion Williamson is arguably the most dangerous player in the league in the open floor. When the Pelicans' defense creates a turnover or forces a long rebound, they are looking to run. This synergy between Indiana's preference for speed and New Orleans' transition talent creates a perfect storm for the Over.
Injury Report: Key Absences and Their Impact
Injuries have been the defining story of the 2025-26 season for both franchises. The Pacers are notably without their franchise cornerstone, Tyrese Haliburton, who is out for the season with an Achilles injury. Furthermore, secondary scorer Bennedict Mathurin remains sidelined. This has forced Andrew Nembhard into a high-usage role, where he has maintained the team's fast tempo even without the All-Star floor general.
The Pelicans are also battered. Defensive specialist Herbert Jones and guard Jose Alvarado are out, which significantly weakens their perimeter defense. Per Action Network, these absences have led to an increase in high-variance scoring for Pelicans' opponents, as the team lacks the "stoppers" required to slow down a fast-paced Indiana backcourt.
Injury Summary for January 16, 2026
| Team | Player | Status | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana Pacers | Tyrese Haliburton | Out (Season) | Massive loss in playmaking |
| Indiana Pacers | Bennedict Mathurin | Out | Loss of secondary scoring |
| New Orleans Pelicans | Jose Alvarado | Out | Decreased perimeter pressure |
| New Orleans Pelicans | Dejounte Murray | Out | Significant loss in two-way play |
A dynamic action shot of Zion Williamson driving to the basket through a crowded Indiana Pacers defense, with sweat and intensity visible as he powers through for a layup.
The Battle of the Stars: Zion Williamson vs. Pascal Siakam
Despite the injuries, the star power at the forward positions remains elite. This game will likely be decided by which superstar can more efficiently exploit the other's defensive gaps. Zion Williamson has been on a tear, averaging over 23 points per game in his last 10 outings. Indiana's interior defense, led by Jay Huff, has struggled to contain physical drivers, ranking near the bottom of the league in points allowed in the paint.
On the other side, Pascal Siakam remains the primary engine for the Pacers. Siakam’s ability to score in isolation and facilitate from the high post will be critical against a New Orleans defense that is missing its best wing defender in Herb Jones. If Siakam can draw fouls and get to the line, he will not only put points on the board but also slow down the game's clock, providing high-value scoring possessions that contribute to the Over.
Betting Trends and Head-to-Head History
Historical data supports a high-scoring trend for this non-conference series. In their last meeting on December 20, 2025, the Pelicans secured a 128-109 victory, blowing past the projected total. Analyzing recent trends from Covers.com reveals that the Over has hit in 60% of New Orleans' road games this season when the total is set above 230.
- Head-to-Head: The Pelicans have won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
- Total Trends: The "Over" has hit in 4 of the last 6 games played at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
- ATS Record: Indiana is 13-10 against the spread at home, while New Orleans is a struggling 3-15 straight up on the road.
A split-screen graphic featuring Pascal Siakam and Trey Murphy III in their team jerseys, with bold text overlaying their recent scoring averages and shooting percentages for the 2025-2026 season.
Final Pelicans vs Pacers Prediction
While some experts might look at the sub-par offensive ratings of these two teams and lean toward the Under, our Pelicans vs Pacers prediction leans heavily into the volume and pace of the matchup. Both teams are defensively compromised and are missing the specific personnel needed to grind out a half-court defensive struggle.
Expect Indiana to push the ball at every opportunity, and expect Zion Williamson to feast in a transition-heavy environment. The market has set a high bar at 238.5, but given the 128-109 result in their last meeting and the current state of both rosters, this game has the DNA of a 125-118 finish.
Official Best Bet: Over 238.5 Total Points.
Secondary Lean: Indiana Pacers -2.5 (Home court advantage and Siakam’s leadership give them a slight edge in a close, high-scoring affair).
For more real-time betting updates and deep-dive analytics, visit the Fox Sports NBA Hub or check the latest odds on FanDuel Research.
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